Western Europe’s hottest summer on record has left its mark on the harvest. The latest ENGA Non-GMO Market Report, prepared with Donau Soja and the ProTerra Foundation, points to tighter supplies of Non-GM soy, maize and rapeseed in the 2026/27 marketing season.
The usual fallback is imports, but this year that is harder. Ukraine, a key Non-GM supplier, faces lower production and war-related disruption to transport. India has less Non-GM soymeal to offer. Much of the extra maize is likely to come from the US, where crops are mostly GM.
Europe’s three main Non-GMO crops – an overview
| Crop | 2026 EU forecast | Change on 2025 | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soy | 2.2 to 2.4m t | around -20% | €505/t in early Oct (Bologna), up 10 to 15% since July |
| Maize | 48.3m t | -19.8% | around €270/t in early Oct (Euronext), up 15 to 20% |
| Rapeseed | 19.4m t | -3.8% | around €550/t in late Sept (Euronext) |
Sources: Donau Soja (soy), DG AGRI (maize and rapeseed)
Soy: sharply lower production and rising premiums
Heat and drought from late June cut EU soy yields to 15% below the five-year average, and the planted area also fell. Donau Soja forecasts output of up to 2.4 million tonnes, around 20% lower than last year. All EU-grown soy is Non-GM, so this loss falls directly on domestic Non-GM supply.
Buyers are already experiencing this drop. In southern Germany, prices reached €530 to 540/t. In northern Germany, the premium for high-protein Non-GM soymeal passed €150/t in August, its highest level since early 2025.
Imports offer limited help. Only around 10% of the EU’s soy imports are Non-GM, and Brazil, Ukraine and India are all constrained in different ways. Brazil could gain ground, but expanding Non-GM supply would need investment in dedicated production, processing and storage, and in segregation and traceability.
Maize: smallest EU crop since at least 2000
DG AGRI forecasts the EU maize harvest at 48.3 million tonnes. France is down 42%, which could be its lowest harvest since 1980. Hungary is down around 48%. Poland could become the EU’s largest producer for the first time.
More than 99% of EU maize is Non-GM, so the shortfall is a Non-GM shortfall. Prices on Euronext have stayed above €260/t since September, the highest level since early 2023.
Imports are set to rise, but not necessarily in the right direction. Much of the extra volume is expected from the US, where maize production is predominantly GM. Ukraine, which supplies 55 to 60% of EU maize imports, has increased deliveries, but security and logistics risks remain.
Rapeseed: a smaller dip, but a tight outlook
EU rapeseed has held up best. Output is forecast at 19.4 million tonnes, 3.8% below last year’s record, helped by a record harvested area of 6.4 million hectares. Frost, low rainfall and early heatwaves reduced yields.
The outlook for Non-GM supply is still tight. EU imports are forecast to fall by around 7%, and Ukrainian supplies are limited by logistics and more domestic processing. Imports from Canada, where around 95% of rapeseed is GM, would not help Non-GMO buyers. Dry weather has also disrupted sowing for the 2027 crop, notably in France and Hungary.
What this means for the sector
Lower EU harvests and uncertain imports mean less Non-GM crop to go round. Extra imports from GM-dominated origins do not solve that. As European markets adjust to lower harvests and changing international trade flows, continued investment and cooperation across the Non-GMO supply chain is even more important. Segregated, traceable supply chains matter more this season.
Read the full ENGA Non-GMO Market Report for October 2026 for detailed crop forecasts, price developments and supply and demand analysis.