The report, published in cooperation with Donau Soja and The ProTerra Foundation, indicates an overall healthy market, which is expected to remain well supplied in the current 2024/25 season – largely down to the relatively good EU soy & maize harvest expectations for 2024.
EU Non-GM soy – planting areas growing, but yield lagging this year
Soy areas reached all-time high levels in the EU-27 (and the whole of Europe) in 2024. All EU-27 soy fields are planted with Non-GM soy varieties. In the EU-27, the soy area is estimated at a record 1.12 million ha in 2024, up 8% on the the previous year, according to the predictions of Donau Soja. This increase has been driven largely by favourable margins for soy producers; high fertiliser and energy prices (soy is a less fertiliser and energy-intensive crop when compared to cereals); a good 2023 harvest, with high yields. Also the impact of the wet weather during autumn and winter can be seen: it delayed or prevented winter crop sowings (some of these fields are likely to be used for sowing spring crops, such as soy). Wider trends play a role, such as the growing demand for deforestation-free and regional soy raw materials.
Prices – downward trend for Non-GM soybeans but soybean meal on the up
The report highlights that Non-GM soybean prices are decreasing: trading at 450-460 EUR/t in mid-September in the EU, down 10% against three months ago. Non-GM soybean prices in Europe are closely tied to the trends in the global GM soybean market. And with abundant GM soy supply in the global market – prices for Non-GM soybeans are also down. Non-GM soymeal premiums continued to rise and moved in the range of 150-200 EUR/t for HP (High Protein) quality during August and early September. Non-GM premiums have been driven up by a lack of Non-GM soybean from early 2024 onwards in the EU. The higher premium is likely to lead to a lower uptake of Non-GM soybean this season compared to the previous year.
Non-GM soy import from Brazil
Brazil plays an important role is supplying the EU with Non-GMO soy and is the leading Non-GM soy exporter to the EU. Strong supply from Brazil is essential in securing the constant need of Non-GM soy in Europe over the whole year. Figures for the 2024 harvest point to approximately 1.5 million t of Non-GM soybean exports from Brazil to the EU, a significant reduction compared to last year. Improved communication between end consumers in Europe and farmers, exporters and government agencies in Brazil is needed to move Non-GM production forward and guarantee long-term production in Brazil.
Non-GM maize – EU well supplied
The EU maize area has increased by 4.2% in 2024. But despite the expansion in area, EU maize output could decrease by -1.7% to 61.9 million t in 2024. This decline is the result of poor weather in the growing season. Despite this, the EU Non-GM maize market is likely to remain well-supplied in the 2024/25 market year beacuse: the EU has a relatively good Non-GM maize output in 2024 (but probably with quality problems in some regions); the Non-GM maize import from Ukraine is expected to remain sufficient, despite a drop in Ukrainian output in 2024; EU maize consumption is expected to decline in 2024/25 driven by a large supply of alternative feed grains, such as wheat or barley.
Non-GM maize prices
The vast majority of maize cultivation in the EU is Non-GM (over 99%). Only Spain & Portugal produce GM maize varieties. Euronext Non-GM maize price moved at 205 EUR/t in mid-September, down 10% vs late July. Non-GM maize is normally traded at a similar price to its GM counterpart.
Non-GM rapeseed – supply abundant
The EU is the biggest producer and consumer of rapeseed in the global market and all of the EU’s rapeseed fields are planted with Non-GM varieties. The availability of Non-GM rapeseed is likely to remain abundant and no bottlenecks are expected in the EU rapeseed market in 2024/25. The EU Non-GM rape output is estimated at 18.0 million t in 2024, down 8.7% compared to the previous year.
Non-GM rapeseed at Euronext traded at 456 EUR/t in mid-September, a similar level as in mid-June. Although abundant global soybean supply and stocks have weighed on EU rapeseed prices over recent months. The comfortable supply of Non-GM rapeseed meal to date is also reflected in the drop in prices in August, which fell to their lowest levels in three years.
Looking forward - 2025 harvest prospects
Conditions for sowing winter oilseed rape are generally good for the 2025 crop in Central and Western Europe. But it was too dry in August in south-east Europe, where only 20% of the usual rainfall was measured within one month in some places. If September also remains dry, this could worsen the prospects for the 2025 harvest.
Supply shortages of Non-GM rapeseed and rapemeal are not expected. However, the smaller EU harvest will reduce the supply of Non-GM rapeseed meal in the 2024/25 marketing year compared to 2023/24. But a very large global supply of GM soy meal is predicted , which could limit the demand for rapeseed meal in the EU & global markets (there is a high degree of substitution between rapemeal & soymeal).