The report, published in cooperation with Donau Soja and The ProTerra Foundation, states that 2025 is likely to see lower availability of Non-GM soy in the EU because of a significantly lower Non-GM soy export to Europe from Brazil compared to 2024: it could drop to below 1.0 million tonnes in 2025, 30-35% lower versus 2024. Meanwhile, recent trade conflicts cause uncertainty and a likely high price volatility in the markets.
EU Non-GM Soy: Higher Yields May Offset Smaller Planted Area
All soybeans grown in the EU are Non-GM, and while the area planted is expected to shrink in 2025, output could hold steady or even rise. According to Donau Soja, the EU soybean area is forecast to decline by 5–10% this year. This is largely due to disappointing harvests in the previous season, when poor weather led to lower quality and yields. However, higher predicted yields in 2025 means that total production may remain on par with last year - or even increase - despite the smaller area under cultivation.
Non-GM Soy Prices: Slight Output Growth, Lower Non-GMO Premium
EU production of Non-GM soy is expected to rise by 1.5% in 2025, reaching 2.89 million tonnes. This modest increase is driven by better yields compared to last season. In March, Non-GM soymeal premiums ranged from €90 to €130 per tonne - around 25% lower than levels seen in late 2024. In mid-March, H(igh) P(rotein) Non-GM soymeal was offered for 495-510 EUR/tonne in Brake, a key importing hub in Northern Germany.
The average price for EU Non-GM soybeans was €430 per tonne, down 3–5% compared to December. The recent price decline is largely due to ample global supplies of GM soy, which have put downward pressure on EU Non-GM prices.
Non-GM Soy Supply and Demand
The ProTerra Foundation reports that Brazilian export of Non-GM soy to Europe could drop to below 1.0 million tonnes in 2025, 30-35% lower than in 2024 – probably leading to lower availability of Non-GM soy in the EU. In 2025/26, the EU is likely to partly compensate for this loss of Brazilian Non-GM shipments by importing from other countries. Supply from Ukraine is expected to play a crucial role here.
In the mid-term, the EU needs to boost domestic soy production along with Non-GM soy import from Brazil and Ukraine to secure its constant supply of Non-GM soy.
Maize outlook: Higher Yields Expected, Prices Stable
EU maize production is forecast to rise by 9.5% in 2025, reaching 65.0 million tonnes, thanks to improved yields – this is 3.4% higher than the five-year average.
Prices have remained stable, with Euronext Non-GM maize trading at €213 per tonne in late March - roughly the same level as in early January. Non-GM maize typically trades at similar prices to GM maize.
The lion’s share of maize and maize products in the EU market is Non-GM. Non-GM maize is available in large quantities and normally has no higher price than GM maize. USDA estimates that roughly 80% of the EU maize import is Non-GM. The main source of import is Ukraine, responsible for around 55-60% of the total EU maize import (5-year avg. of 2020-2024).
Non-GM Rapeseed: Tight Supply for Now, but Recovery in Sight
Non-GM rapeseed are the only varieties which are planted in the EU by law. Therefore, all the projections of EU rapeseed production refer to Non-GM quality. The EU market for Non-GM rapeseed and rape meal remains tight, with limited availability expected to persist until the next harvest in July or August. However, prospects for the 2025 crop are more optimistic. The rapeseed area is projected to grow by 3.8% year-on-year to 5.9 million hectares, with crops reported to be in fairly good condition across much of Europe as of mid-March. As a result, EU rapeseed output could rebound to 19.0 million tonnes in 2025 - an increase of 12% compared to 2024.
GM vs Non-GM Rapeseed: Price Gap Depends on Imports
Typically, Non-GM rapeseed does not command a premium over GM varieties. However, temporary price differences can emerge - particularly when larger volumes of GM rapeseed are imported from Australia and Canada to meet the needs of EU crushing plants. In such cases, GM rapeseed may be traded at a discount of €0–25 per tonne.
According to rough estimates by the USDA (official data is lacking), GM rapeseed makes up less than 25% of the EU’s total rapeseed imports. Between 2020 and 2024, EU-27 rapeseed imports ranged between 5.0 and 6.5 million tonnes. For the current 2024/25 marketing season, the European Commission’s DG AGRI forecasts imports at 5.8 million tonnes.
Prices have been volatile in recent weeks but Non-GM rapeseed price settled at €513 per tonne on Euronext in late March. Trade tensions continue to pose risks, potentially disrupting markets and shifting trade flows.
Downlaod the full report here.