In its 8th edition, the Market Report, produced jointly with Donau Soja and the ProTerra Foundation, highlights that globally, record harvests and subdued demand continue to weigh on prices for all three crops. Boosting domestic soy production and securing stable Non-GM supply ties with Brazil and Ukraine will be key to maintaining stability in the EU Non-GM market in the medium term.
Non-GMO Soy: Stable Supply but Shifting Trade Dynamics
Non-GMO soy supply in the EU is expected to remain broadly stable this season, underpinned by strong yields in Western Europe — particularly in Italy, Austria and Germany — and solid production in Western Ukraine. Total EU-27 output is forecast at around 2.8 million tonnes, representing a slight year-on-year decline due to reduced sowings, partially offset by improved yields.
Only Non-GM soybean varieties are permitted for cultivation in EU member states. As a result, 100% of the soy harvested within the EU is Non-GM. However, the EU remains heavily dependent on soybean and soymeal imports, which exceed 30 million tonnes annually. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates, only about 10% of this volume is covered by Non-GM products.
Non-GMO Soy Prices & Global Supply
Prices eased to around 410 EUR/t in mid-October, reflecting ample global supply, weaker GM prices and sluggish Chinese demand. Brazil’s Non-GMO soy sector, historically the EU’s main supplier, is facing major challenges; it has been limited by seed shortages and weak long-term purchase commitments from European buyers with production estimated at just 1.5–2.0 million tonnes — a historic low. As a result, Brazil may lose its dominant role as Europe’s main Non-GM soy supplier, and the EU is expected to rely more heavily on imports from Ukraine and India going forward.
Non-GM soymeal prices have not changed much over the last quarter: High-protein Non-GM soymeal was quoted at 440-450 EUR/t in Northern Germany in mid-October. Premiums over conventional soymeal stabilised between 100-140 EUR/t during the first three quarters of 2025, after peaking in mid 2024.
Non-GMO Maize: Lower Output and Reduced Ukrainian Imports
EU maize production is projected at 56.8 million tonnes for 2025 — a 4.6% decrease year-on-year and nearly 10% below the five-year average. This marks one of the lowest harvests in the past 15 years, largely due to a reduction in planted area as farmers shifted to more resilient winter crops, such as wheat and rapeseed. France, the bloc’s largest maize grower, is expected to see the steepest decline.
The vast majority of maize and maize products in the EU market is Non-GM. Non-GM maize normally has no higher price than GM maize. Despite modest yield improvements in some areas, dry and hot conditions across south-eastern Europe led to below-average results. Prices have declined steadily in recent months, reaching 184 EUR/t in mid-October. Although supply is tightening in the Non-GMO segment due to reduced imports from Ukraine and higher volumes of GM maize from Brazil, no major bottlenecks are expected.
Non-GMO Rapeseed: Strong Recovery in Output
The 2025 EU rapeseed (all Non-GMO) harvest rebounded significantly from the previous year, with output rising to 19.9 million tonnes — up 19.3% year-on-year. This recovery was driven by increased sown area (the area sown in autumn 2025 for the 2026 harvest is expected to increase by 4%, reaching 6.32 million ha) and strong yields across key producing countries, including France, Germany, Poland and Romania.
Prices have remained stable at around 465 EUR/t, with abundant global oilseed supply and trade uncertainties keeping values in check. Ukraine’s introduction of an export tax on rapeseed is expected to limit seed exports to the EU but increase meal shipments. Looking ahead, the (EU-27) area sown for the 2026 harvest is projected to expand further, by 4%, reaching 6.32 million ha, although dry conditions in parts of Eastern Europe may affect next year’s crop.