The report, published in cooperation with Donau Soja and The ProTerra Foundation, focusses on the second quarter of 2025 and highlights the key overarching trends, as well as yields, supply, prices and premiums of these key commodities.
Non-GMO Soy: area and output in the EU declining
The European Union’s area planted with Non-GM soy is forecast to fall by 8% to around 1.1. million hectares (ha) in 2025 – this follows a record 2024 season. The Non-GM soy output of the EU-27 is projected to decline by 6.1% year-on-year to 2.8 million tonnes (t). Most EU soy crops were in good condition at the start of the summer, due to timely sowing and favourable early-season weather. In June, EU Non-GM soybean prices hovered around 410 EUR/t, continuing a downward trend driven by weak global GM soy prices and oversupply.
Brazil also sees lower output
Brazil’s 2024/25 Non-GM soy harvest is projected at just 1.5 million t, down from 2.4 million t in the previous season, partly due to seed shortages. The EU remains heavily dependent on soybean and soymeal imports, which exceed 30 million t annually. According to USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) estimates, only about 10% of this volume is covered by Non-GM products.
EU soy supply declining – imports from Ukraine and India may offset shortfall
Non-GM soy supply in the EU is expected to drop in 2025, driven by lower domestic production, as well as reduced imports of Non-GM raw materials from Brazil. The EU may look to increase Non-GM soy imports from Ukraine and India in 2025/26 to help offset reduced Brazilian supply. In the medium-term, the EU will need to strengthen domestic soy production and secure Non-GM imports from both Brazil and Ukraine to ensure stable supply.
Non-GMO Maize – EU area declines, but output up
Overarching agricultural trends are having their mark on the market, such as farmers moving away from spring crops, like maize, due to repeated heatwaves and drought risks, favouring more resilient winter grains, such as wheat or rapeseed. The EU’s maize area is, therefore, predicted to decline by 1.3% to 8.7 million ha in 2025. Despite this smaller planted area, maize output in the EU is set to rise by 8.4% to 64.6 million t (a four-year high) in 2025 – this is down to improved yields compared to last year’s drought-hit season. Non-GM maize supply in the bloc remains secure until the new harvest in October 2025, backed by imports from the US, UA and Brazil.
Non-GM Maize prices: small drop
EU Non-GM maize prices (normally traded at a similar price to its GM counterpart) have declined modestly over the past three months. At the end of June, Euronext futures for August’s harvest stood at 190–195 EUR/t, down from 213 EUR/t in late March, pressured by ample supply and a stronger euro.
EU Maize – almost totally Non-GM
The lion’s share of maize and maize products in the EU market is Non-GM; in domestic maize production, GM maize is limited to less than 1% of the total EU maize output. Whilst domestic maize production covered around 75–80% of the total EU maize consumption (5 years average 2020-2024), the EU relies on maize imports: the yearly maize import of the EU-27 has averaged 18.7 million t and ranged from 14.1 to 23.8 million t over the last 5 years (2020-2024). USDA estimates that roughly 80% of the EU maize import is Non-GM.
Non-GMO Rapeseed: supply tight, but expected to improve soon
Currently the EU’s Non-GM rapeseed and meal supply is tight, ahead of the new harvest, but this is expected to improve after July/August. The EU’s area planted with rapeseed for the 2025 harvest is estimated at 6.0 million ha, which is 4.5% up on the previous season. Output for the bloc is forecast to rebound to around 18.9 million t in 2025, up 13.4% compared to 2024’s drought-hit season. Rapeseed crushing is projected to increase by 1–2 million t, boosting Non-GM rapeseed meal availability.
In the EU-27, only Non-GM rapeseed is produced. But import is needed to supply the demand within the 27-nation bloc. Less than 25% of the EU rapeseed import is GM according to a rough estimate of USDA. The total EU-27 rapeseed import ranged between 5.0 and 6.5 million t over the last 5 years (2020-2024). DG AGRI forecasts that the total EU-27 rapeseed import will reach 5.8 million t in the current 2024/25 marketing season.
Non-GM rapeseed prices also down this quarter
Non-GM rapeseed prices on Euronext averaged around 483 EUR/t in late June, this is down 5–10% from April, partly driven by improved crop prospects in the EU as well as the stronger performance of the EURO versus the USD.