The quarterly report, now in its 9th edition, is produced in collaboration with Donau Soja and The ProTerra Foundation. It finds that despite lower availability from some traditional origins, alternative suppliers and solid EU production are helping to maintain market balance across all three crops. At the same time, medium-term prospects for protein crops remain supported by EU policy and structural demand trends.
Non-GMO soy: stable EU output, changing import structure
EU Non-GMO soybean production remains resilient in 2025/26, despite a contraction in planted area. Output is estimated at around 2.9–3.0 million tonnes, only slightly below (-4%) last year’s record. As only Non-GMO soy varieties are cultivated in the EU, all domestic production is Non-GMO by definition.
While domestic supply is steady, the structure of Non-GMO soy imports is shifting. Ukrainian exports to the EU are expected to decline following late-2025 export policy changes, with trade increasingly moving towards soymeal rather than whole beans. At the same time, Indian Non-GMO soymeal availability is tightening due to lower domestic production, reducing another traditional source for the EU market.
These changes are being partly offset by continued Non-GMO shipments from Brazil and growing volumes from alternative origins including Canada, Argentina and West Africa. Overall, EU Non-GMO soy availability remains sufficient, though sourcing strategies are becoming more diversified.
On prices, EU Non-GMO soybean values fell below EUR 400/t in mid-January, reaching a five-year low amid ample global supply and record crop prospects in South America. The medium-term outlook for soy remains positive, supported by EU protein crop policies and steadily rising demand for plant-based proteins.
Non-GMO maize: adequate availability, gradual tightening
More than 99% of EU maize production is Non-GMO, with GM maize cultivation limited to small areas in Spain and Portugal. EU maize output declined again in 2025, falling to 57.8 million tonnes, around 8% below the five-year average, due to lower planted area and weather-related yield losses in parts of South-eastern Europe.
Looking ahead, early forecasts suggest that EU maize area will contract further in 2026, as farmers increasingly switch to oilseeds and protein crops following weaker maize profitability and rising climate risks. But, maize output this year is projected to be slightly above the drought-affected 2025 crop: tentatively forecast at 58.8 million tonnes. And DG AGRI expects EU maize output to remain broadly stable over the next decade, but with higher year-to-year volatility. Despite the smaller harvest, Non-GMO maize availability in the EU remains adequate for now, supported by solid output in France, Germany and Poland.
Prices have remained broadly stable, with Euronext maize futures around EUR 190/t in mid-January. Ample global supply continues to cap price gains, although weather developments in South America will remain a key factor to watch in the coming months.
Non-GMO rapeseed: strong harvest supports supply, prices recover
EU rapeseed markets are benefiting from the large 2025 harvest, which was entirely Non-GMO. Although farmer selling has been slower, overall supply remains adequate and no shortages are expected. For the 2026 harvest, EU rapeseed area is estimated at around 6.5 million hectares, the highest level in 16 years. Output is expected to increase modestly to around 21–22 million tonnes.
On the price side, Non-GMO rapeseed prices recovered to around EUR 468/t by mid-January after a temporary dip in December linked to weaker global soybean markets.
While EU imports declined earlier in the season following Ukrainian export duties, increased availability from Canada and Australia help to boost availability. As China restricts imports from Canada, more (mostly GM) Canadian rapeseed is flowing to the EU and needs to be strictly separated. Overall, Non-GMO rapeseed and rapemeal availability remains sufficient, though careful segregation remains essential as GM volumes enter the EU market.