The report, published in cooperation with Donau Soja and The ProTerra Foundation, indicates, at the same time, that there is sufficient supply to cover the current demand in 2024/25. However, there could be some regional bottlenecks in areas of high demand. Early orders and long-term contracts should therefore be considered.
Meanwhile, Non-GMO soybean meal premiums were at historically high levels in recent months. The report also highlights output from Brazil as a major importer of Non-GMO soy to the EU: Brazil’s segregated Non-GM soy output and export to Europe is likely to halve to record low levels of around 1.5 million tonnes in 2024/25 but is likely to be compensated by imports from Ukraine.
EU Non-GM soy – record planting area but mixed yields
The EU soy harvest finished in the second half of November covering a record area but with mixed yield results. All soy produced in the EU is Non-GM. EU soy output dropped by 3.4% to 2.76 million tonnes in 2024, according to Donau Soja’s estimates. This drop in volume came about despite a 10% increase in sowing area. The yields were severely damaged by weather anomalies over the summer of 2024.
Non-GM soy supply and demand
The availability of Non-GM soy is likely to remain sufficient in the current 2024/25 season, mainly because of larger imports from Ukraine. Around 40% of total EU Non-GM soy demand is met by local (EU) Non-GM soybean production, according to a rough estimate by Donau Soja. The rest is mainly covered through import from Brazil & Ukraine and a smaller portion from India, Canada, Western-Africa, Serbia and Argentina.
The report points to an expected dip in Non-GM soy shipments from Brazil next year. According to the ProTerra Foundation, the 2024/25 crop of Non-GM soy in Brazil, harvested in the first half of 2025, is expected to fall to a historically low level of around 1.5 million tonnes of segregated material, a significant drop on the previous season. This substantial decrease in Brazilian Non-GM soy production is the result of a combination of factors, such as a lack of long-term commitments from European buyers, changes in the ownership of some producers and a shortage of Non-GM soy seed.
However, the EU Non-GM soy import from Ukraine is expected to significantly increase after it expanded its soy output by a massive 24% (which equates to an increase of 1.1 million tonnes of harvested volume) to a record 5.9 million tonnes in 2024. The additional Non-GM soy imports from Ukraine are likely to balance out most of the drop in Brazilian Non-GM shipments to the EU.
Prices of Non-GM soy on the up
In November, Non-GM soybean prices averaged 440-450 EUR/tonnes in Southern Germany and Northern Italy, the EU’s biggest Non-GM soybean processor regions. Non-GM soymeal prices followed the trends of soybean prices in recent months. The price of HP Non-GM soymeal moved at 570-575 EUR/t in Brake, a key port in Northern Germany. Non-GM soymeal premiums in Europe have been moving in the range of 150-200 EUR/t for the last 6 months. This level is considered to be high in historic terms.
Non-GM maize – EU well supplied
Despite an increase in the maize area (which was up 7%), EU maize output dropped by 2.7% to 59.6 million tonnes in 2024, according to the latest estimation of the European Commission. But extensive imports from Ukraine mean that there is comfortable supply of Non-GM maize in the EU in 2024/25.
The lion’s share of maize and maize products in the EU market is Non-GM; in domestic maize production, GM maize is limited to less than 1% of the total EU maize output. Globally, maize is mainly used for feed. Roughly 75-80% of the EU’s grain maize supply is used for animal feed, the rest is consumed in biofuel (10%) and other industrial fields (7%) as well as for human consumption (7%).
Non-GM maize prices
Non-GM maize is available in large quantities and normally it does not have a higher price than GM maize. However, there are periods when GM maize has a discount (5-40 USD/t) over Non-GM maize in regions with large maize imports from Brazil (such as the Netherlands). Euronext Non-GM maize’s price moved at 205-210 EUR/t in late November, up 5% versus prices in late August. Poor EU yields put upward pressure on prices.
Non-GM rapeseed – larger harvest expected in 2025
An EU rapeseed harvest of 18.7 million tonnes has been forecast for 2025 (according to the first outlook for rapeseed output in 2025 from French consultancy, Stratégie Grains). This could mean an increase of 12% from the four-year low of 16.7 million tonnes in 2024. But because of 2024’s small harvest (both in the EU and in Ukraine, which is the EU’s leading Non-GM rapeseed supplier in the global market), EU oil mills are expected to process less Non-GM rapeseed in 2024/25 due to smaller rapeseed harvests in the EU and also in Ukraine. This drop in Non-GM crushing could lead to a reduced supply, and potentially regional bottlenecks, of Non-GM rapeseed meal in the EU in 2024/25. It therefore makes sense to secure the required quantities early on through long-term contracts.
Non-GM rapeseed prices
Similarly to the maize market, the overwhelming amount of rapeseed and rape meal traded within the EU is Non-GM. In the EU Non-GM is the standard quality both in futures contracts and the physical market of rapeseed products. Normally there is no higher price of Non-GM rapeseed compared to its GM counterpart. But there are periods when GM rapeseed is traded at a 0-25 EUR/t discount, mostly when a larger import of Australian and Canadian GM import is needed to feed crushing plants in the EU.
Driven by smaller EU and Canadian harvests as well as rising vegetable oil prices, Non-GM rapeseed prices have been moving upwards. At Euronext (Feb-25 contract) Non-GM rapeseed moved at 530 EUR/t in early December – an increase of over 15% over the last three months.